Restaurants, hotels and offices stand empty across China. Tens of millions are confined at home as coronavirus spreads. China’s central bank has cut its benchmark lending rate. Big lenders are expected to loosen credit too, even as they face a surge of up to $1.1tn in questionable loans.
S&P predicts non-performing loans will rise to four times the figure for last year on the balance sheets of commercial banks. The total will be higher if the epidemic is worse than forecast.
Before the outbreak, NPLs hovered at less than 2 per cent of total loans at the six biggest state-owned lenders, which include ICBC and BoCom. As a group they trade at about half of book value, near record lows. Low pricing and state ownership gave their shares an aura of safety, even as lower rates eroded returns.