The financial stress caused by Covid-19 is far from over. Investors should brace for non-payments to spread far beyond the most vulnerable corporate and sovereign borrowers, in a reckoning that threatens to drag prices lower.
There is still time to get ahead of this trend. Rather than buying assets at valuations stunningly decoupled from underlying corporate and economic fundamentals, investors should think a lot more about the recovery value of their assets and adjust their portfolios accordingly.
So far, despite signs of rising stress on corporate and public balance sheets, non-payments have been largely contained to certain badly affected segments.
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