Boris Johnson’s place in history is already assured. Less clear is what the British prime minister will be remembered for. At first it looked like Brexit; more recently he seemed set to be the pandemic premier. But this week, as he celebrates his first year in office, a new fear is that he might be known as the leader who lost the Union.
Not before time, the prime minister’s team is waking up to the renewed threat of Scottish independence, jarred by the strong pandemic performance of Scotland’s nationalist first minister Nicola Sturgeon and recent opinion polls showing a majority for separation.
Mr Johnson helped cause the problem. The 2014 independence referendum should have killed the issue for a generation. But Brexit, which Scotland voted against, revived it. Scots then saw Mr Johnson topple Theresa May, because her approach prioritised saving the Union above a hardline Brexit. In the 2017 election, Mrs May and Ruth Davidson, the Tory party’s then Scottish leader, had reduced the Scottish National party to 37 per cent of the vote. In 2019, against Mr Johnson and his Brexit strategy, the SNP bounced back to 45 per cent. It is now focused on securing a second referendum.