At the start of the first world war, the British public thought it would be “over by Christmas”. Many thought the same of the pandemic. Now, as then, it has proved wishful thinking. On Monday, Britain’s medical experts warned of a tough six months ahead. Concern over rising coronavirus cases worldwide sent bank and leisure group shares down sharply.
How to plan amid so much uncertainty? The world’s biggest events company, UK-listed Informa, originally hoped business would pick up from September. On Monday it said it would postpone physical events until mid- to late spring of next year, as it tracked the bleakest of the alternative scenarios it sketched in April. That too could be overly optimistic, but at least that will be the other side of winter, the US election and perhaps a vaccine.
China, though, is back on track — and not just for Informa. It is the only big economy expected to expand this year. The UK, by contrast, is likely to be badly hit, with GDP falling by more than a tenth, the OECD says. That is partly down to the make-up of the economy, limiting the lift from the revival in manufacturing. Moreover, fiscal support, though unprecedented, has lagged behind some other big economies.