For a fleeting moment after the 2008 financial crisis, received wisdom held that the damage wrought by anything-goes financial capitalism presaged a reshaping of the market economy. The bankers would be reined in and the playing field remade to distribute more fairly the gains from technological innovation and globalisation. These good intentions dissolved when central banks set the printing presses running in defence of the status quo.
The enduring consequences of the crash turned out to be political. By exposing the inequalities of Washington consensus economics, the crash gathered up a ready army of supporters for populists of both the right and left to rail against elites. Government austerity programmes cut wages and suppressed welfare payments, compounding the grievances of society’s left-behinds. The popular insurgencies feeding the UK’s Brexit decision and Donald Trump’s election as US president were scarcely coincidental.
Four years later, and nearly a year into the coronavirus pandemic, the skies suddenly seem to have brightened. Vaccines have brought into sight if not the elimination of Covid-19 then at least the capacity to bring it under control. It is perfectly possible to imagine that by mid-2021, at least in rich societies, life will have returned to something like normal. Economies will pick up, unemployment will start to fall and borders will reopen. To the extent that the virus persists, it will be manageable.