Such is the shock over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that western sanctions have gone much further than seemed likely even a week ago. Not only have several Russian banks been barred from the Swift messaging network, but the EU, US and UK have placed sanctions on Russia’s central bank, sharply reducing access to its foreign currency reserves. These moves will not stop Vladimir Putin’s war in its tracks. But they will put huge pressure on the Russian economy, and squeeze over time the Kremlin’s capacity to wage its war.
Since Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine in 2014, Moscow has sought to protect its financial system from possibly being cut off from international markets by the US. Its central bank amassed $630bn in foreign exchange reserves and shifted them away from the dollar and towards the euro, China’s renminbi and gold. Moscow seemed to believe a disunited Europe, dependent on Russian gas, would not join with the US. But around half of Russia’s total reserves are now frozen.
Combined with broader financial sanctions, the impact has been sizeable. The rouble has already fallen by more than during Russia’s 1998 default, even though the central bank has doubled interest rates to 20 per cent. Bank runs have not yet materialised but many Russians have been queueing to get hold of cash. While the west is not seeking to target the Russian people directly, the package will squeeze living standards, potentially eroding support for a leader who came to power promising stability after the chaotic 1990s.