The course of disinflation never does run smooth. At the end of last year, futures markets had priced in six interest rate cuts for the US in 2024. My own expectations had also become quite optimistic. Yet now, after three successive quarters of stubbornly high inflation, US Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell warns that it is likely to take “longer than expected” for inflation to return to the central bank’s 2 per cent target and justify cuts to interest rates. Market forecasts for rate cuts have duly been transformed. Some suggest they will be postponed to December, partly to avoid cuts before the presidential elections in November. Yet no similar rethinking has emerged in the eurozone: the first cut is still expected to be made in June.
降通胀的过程永远不会一帆风顺。去年年底，期货市场曾预期美国在2024年将降息6次。我自己的预期之前也相当乐观。然而现在，在通胀连续三个季度居高不下之后，美联储(Fed)主席杰伊•鲍威尔(Jay Powell)警告称，通胀回到美联储2%的目标水平、从而有理由降息，可能需要“比预期更长的时间”。市场对降息的预测也相应发生了转变。一些人认为降息将推迟到12月，部分原因是为了避免在11月总统选举前降息。然而，欧元区并没有出现类似的再思考：预计首次降息仍将在6月份进行。