It is hard to say exactly when Kamala Harris’s momentum began to slow. But it was somewhere between her mauling of Donald Trump in last month’s debate and the point when Hurricane Helene made east coast landfall. That storm, which has wrought the worst devastation in years, is now followed by the equally menacing Hurricane Milton. Amid the flooding, evacuations and death has been a gale surge of disinformation about the US federal government’s alleged negligence. Everything is apparently Harris’s fault, including the weather.
It would be a fool’s errand to forecast the storm’s impact on next month’s election. George W Bush’s mishandling of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 came after his re-election, though it may have fed into the Democratic sweep in the following year’s midterms. Contrary to expectations, Helene’s wreckage could even benefit Harris’s turnout as the heavily Republican areas of rural Georgia and North Carolina have been hit harder than their cities. Florida, which is next on the hurricane season’s target list, is no longer a swing state.
The point is that almost anything — beyond the proverbial transoceanic flapping of a butterfly’s wings — can tip the result in what is essentially a toss-up election. The chances that Harris could lose to Trump and vice versa are even. “Experts” who claim to know the outcome are bluffing. No opinion pollster can drill into the heads of a few hundred thousand swing state voters who do not yet know their own minds.