The business of luxury is seduction. The aesthetics, the textures, the aura of exclusivity all conspire to turn savvy customers into true believers. That logic is not supposed to apply to hard-nosed investors. Yet their approach to the sector also veers into blind faith.
See, for instance, the market’s reaction to LVMH’s — horrible — sales. The luxury juggernaut’s key fashion and leather goods business, which includes brands such as LV and Dior, was down 5 per cent in the third quarter as the Chinese consumer finally capitulated. That points to a much sharper slowdown than feared.
Yet investors greeted this with surprising aplomb. Indeed, the main shock over Wednesday’s mini luxury sell-off was just how mini it was. Competitors were down a couple of percentage points. And LVMH itself fell less than the magnitude of cuts to forecast earnings. Indeed, at 21 times next year’s earnings, the group’s valuation is not far off from mid-cycle multiples of 23 to 24 times, according to Thomas Chauvet at Citigroup. The market, it seems, sees this as a classic macro downturn — and one that will soon reverse.