What would a second coming of Donald Trump mean for the US and the world? Optimists can point to what happened last time: his presidency, they might assert, was full of sound and fury. But it signified little. He ruled more conventionally than many feared. Moreover, in the end, he was beaten by Joe Biden and departed. He departed with bad grace, it is true. But what else would one expect? He departed, all the same. Why would it not be similar if he won a second term, as polls suggest is likely?
Trump is an expert in empty promises. In 2016, a centrepiece of his campaign was the “wall” that Mexico would pay for. In the end, there was no wall, let alone any money from Mexico. This time he has promised to round up and deport as many as 11mn undocumented aliens. The operation needed to do this would be immensely costly and controversial. Indeed, how exactly would many millions be deported and to where?
More ridiculous is Trump’s suggestion that by raising tariffs, he could eliminate the income tax. This is utter nonsense. According to a paper by Kimberly Clausing and Maurice Obstfeld, even the revenue-maximising tariff of 50 per cent all round would deliver less than 40 per cent of the revenue from income tax. The net loss of tax revenue would gut the spending on which his relatively elderly voters depend.