On March 22, 2018, when the Trump administration imposed tariffs on Chinese goods under the Section 301 investigation, academics were still cautious about using the term “trade war,” fearing it would further inflame tensions. However, by April 2025, Trump had signed an executive order imposing a 10% “minimum benchmark tariff” on goods from more than 180 countries and regions, and even levied tariffs of over 20% on allies such as Japan and South Korea. There is no longer any doubt: the tariff war launched by the United States has triggered a trade war with unpredictable consequences, not only between China and the US, but on a global scale.
In my view, while Trump’s recent series of tariff policies may appear erratic, their core objectives are actually quite clear. The first is to alleviate the severe US debt crisis. The Trump administration is imposing sweeping tariffs in hopes of increasing government revenue, while also using tariffs as leverage to force other countries to buy American products, services, natural resources, and arms, thereby boosting US exports. In addition, the “Mar-a-Lago Accord” proposed by Trump’s new economic adviser, Stephan Miran, suggests that the US may require foreign central banks to sell their dollar reserves to weaken the dollar, while also obliging countries to purchase ultra-long-term US Treasury bonds to ensure the stability of the US debt market—ultimately aiming to ease America’s debt burden.
It is important to note, however, that whether such aggressive tariff policies can effectively relieve debt pressure remains uncertain. Many prominent economists, as well as former US Treasury officials, believe the US will face significant inflationary pressures this year, and may even slip into recession. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has accordingly lowered its US growth forecast for this year from 2.7% to 1.8%.