2025年度报告

Santa’s good and bad economies list

It has been a very mixed year for reforms and sensible governance

From the very first Christmas, the holiday has been associated with gift-giving. But this seasonal generosity never shed an old moralistic streak of sorting people into the more or less deserving. In many traditions, Santa Claus is a keeper of ledgers, designating children as good or bad. But what if St Nicholas did the same for economic governance? Which nations — and leaders — would receive gifts, or lumps of coal?

The US president might find himself on the naughty list. Although the global economy has weathered Donald Trump’s chaotic policymaking, most analysts are pretty confident economic activity and markets would have done even better without it. After all, he has upended the global trading system, created enormous legal uncertainty, undermined confidence in the US dollar, and neglected both America’s shaky public finances and the affordability crisis confronting most of the population.

A lump of coal for Britain, too, perhaps. Coming up to a year and a half in office, the Labour government has pushed up taxes, reversed efforts to streamline benefit spending, and raised uncertainty with its lacklustre communication ahead of Budgets. Hiring and investment have been downbeat. It promised to drive growth and bring stability. So far, it has delivered neither.

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