If you want to take a gloomy view of the prospects for trade and globalisation based on the year so far, you’re not short of material. Donald Trump has threatened tariffs against the EU for resisting his desire to annex Greenland, and against anyone trading with Iran or selling oil to Cuba. A brutally frank speech by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has articulated widespread fears about the fragmentation of the global order.
But it’s difficult to point to hard evidence, even after a full year of Trump in office, that these stresses are causing serious damage to trade in goods and services. His tariff campaign is so badly run and has hit so much resistance it may already have peaked, and the system has proved itself flexible enough to adapt. Longer-term trends towards politicising and weaponising globalisation of course remain in place, but for now the most striking thing about world trade is its resilience.
US imports in value terms surged early in 2025 to get ahead of Trump’s tariffs but have since returned to normal. Despite a downward blip in imports in October, reversed in November, the US shows few signs of ceasing to be a source of global demand.