British parliamentary by-elections are generally poor indicators of national contests but very good at giving you the state of the parties today.
By that measure Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour government has a great deal to worry about after the Green party’s victory in a parliamentary by-election in what was supposed to be a Labour stronghold in Manchester. The Gorton and Denton contest delivered a stunning win for the small party and one that points to the further fragmentation of British politics. Under a new party leader pursuing arguments influenced by Zohran Mamdani’s New York mayoral campaign, the Greens have moved closer to establishing a viable populist left force in British politics.
Labour fell to third place, behind both the Greens and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. The result points to disastrous results for Labour in May’s Scottish and Welsh parliamentary and English council elections. It will lead to renewed pressure for a change of leadership. The outcome is also a warning for Reform. Although this seat would not normally be a prime target, Nigel Farage, who leads the party, should be troubled that his ever-rightward drift is being met by voters increasingly searching for the best way to stop him winning.