The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is one of the most foreseen “unforeseen problems” in history. For decades, academics and game theorists have speculated about the possibility that, in wartime, Iran could choke off the narrow waterway through which 20 per cent of the world’s oil exports pass.
Donald Trump was warned of the danger to the strait as America and Israel prepared to attack Iran. But the US president waved away these concerns, predicting instead that the Islamic republic would swiftly capitulate.
A conflict with Iran that started with vague war aims now has one clear and overriding objective: reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Ironically and infuriatingly, the only reason the strait is closed is because the US and Israel went to war in the first place.