To predict Donald Trump’s actions, it’s crucial to understand that he thinks like a television producer. From Minneapolis to Iran, he is guided more by storylines than policy or even popularity. That has always been true. But in January, he switched TV genre, ditching his tired reality show for a new action-adventure series. That shift is spreading danger worldwide.
The young Trump considered going to film school, but his father was very keen for him to work for the family real-estate company. Still, after an erratic career in business, Trump found his vocation hosting the TV reality show The Apprentice. (Fans who think his genius is for business are making a category error.) His appetite for transgression and conflict made him a reality star. But his range in TV was broad: he also appeared in pro wrestling contests, talk shows and cameo roles in sitcoms, while starring in real-life courtroom dramas.
When he abandoned the declining TV industry, he brought its techniques to politics. He treated the 2016 election as a reality show, beating overcautious dullards like Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton (and in 2024, Kamala Harris) who didn’t understand what genre they were in. He was mocked during his first term for watching hours of TV a day, but he wasn’t just relaxing: he was studying.