Expectation inertia is a powerful force. Thirty-year Treasury yields went above 5 per cent in 2023 before heading back down. But in the last couple of weeks, as the same thing has happened, investors finally seem to be accepting the notion that America is leaving the era of lower interest rates, and entering a new world with many more inflationary vectors than in the past.There are multiple reasons for this — from higher energy and goods prices related to war and tariffs, as well as re-industrialisation and rising defence spending, to the way in which AI giants are gobbling up real estate, chips, water and electricity, raising the price of these things across the economy at large. Lower demand for all those US Treasuries doesn’t help either.
预期惯性是一种强大的力量。30年期美国国债收益率在2023年曾升至5%以上，之后回落。但在过去几周，当同样的事情发生时，投资者似乎才终于接受了这种观点：美国正告别低利率的时代，进入通胀驱动因素比过去多得多的新世界。