Arguments about the past are often used as proxies for arguments about the future. It is no surprise, then, that a long-running debate about the Industrial Revolution has flared up as we begin another phase of rapid technological change.The argument concerns whether the industrial revolution was good or bad for workers in the short run (and, by extension, which the AI revolution will be). The discourse in tech circles can be boiled down to this: “Relax: the industrial revolution led to higher real wages and more jobs”. “But don’t you know about ‘Engels’ pause’? Between 1790 and 1840, profits rose but real wages barely budged.” “Ah, but don’t you know that a different measure of real wages tells a different story?” And so on.
围绕过去的争论往往寄托着关于未来的争论。难怪在我们开启一场新的快速技术变革之际，围绕工业革命的旷日持久的争论会再次火起来。