Come in number 58, your time is up. For months now Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation has been a matter of when not whether. Whatever the outcome of the Makerfield by-election, Starmer faced a challenge and near-certain defeat. The scale of Andy Burnham’s victory ensured a rout.
But even more than the return of the Manchester mayor, Starmer’s absurdly early departure — he announced his exit less than two years after a huge election victory — is down to one man, Nigel Farage. It is the threat of Reform UK that has so panicked Labour MPs. The stakes now seem so much higher than when defeat simply meant the return of the Conservatives. Senior ministers see Farage’s party as a unique threat to the country and they were simply not prepared to give Starmer any more time against such a malign challenge.
The irony is that this comes after Reform had its worst week in years, not only losing heavily in Makerfield but also seeing the Conservatives win a by-election in Scotland. But the Makerfield defeat is down to the man who will now replace Starmer, probably by mid-July.