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Investors cut bets on US and UK interest rate rises

Weaker economic data has changed expectations despite a rally in oil prices

Investors have cut back bets on interest rate rises by the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England as weaker economic data outweighs concerns over rising oil prices.

In the US, falling inflation and an unexpected decline in non-farm employment last month have prompted traders to push back their bets on the Fed’s next quarter-point rise to January 2027. At the start of this month it was fully priced in by October this year.

“Markets have locked on to that [weaker economic data], probably rightly so, jumping to the conclusion that this is going to slow the Fed’s timeline for moving to rate hikes,” said Robert Tipp, head of bonds at investment firm PGIM.

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