FT商学院

Why do we find it so hard to accept coincidences for what they are?
为什么我们很难接受巧合就是巧合?

Apparently meaningful relations between events get us hunting for causation in vain
事件之间看上去有意义的关系让我们徒劳地寻找因果关系。

If a screenwriter were to come up with a storyline in which a tech tycoon drowns when his luxury yacht is hit by a freak storm just two days after his co-defendant in a multibillion dollar fraud trial — for which both men were recently acquitted — is fatally hit by a car in another set of ostensibly unsuspicious circumstances, they might very well be told this was rather too implausible for viewers to buy.

如果一个编剧想出这样一个情节:一位科技大亨在他的豪华游艇被突如其来的风暴袭击后溺水身亡,而就在两天前,他在一起数十亿美元欺诈案中的共同被告(两人最近都被无罪释放)在另一场表面上没有可疑之处的车祸中丧生,那么他们很可能会被告知,这个情节对观众来说太不可信了。

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