In 2016, I was one of the fools who thought people wouldn’t vote for Donald Trump. As I explained to readers before the Republican primaries, “The electorate generally just wants a leader who appears sane, which is why Republicans almost certainly won’t nominate Trump.” I was taking my lead from so-called experts. “If you want to know the future,” I wrote in May that year, “the best forecasters are betting markets . . . The Oddschecker website, which compares odds offered by different bookmakers, indicates a chance of just over one in four that Brits will opt for Brexit. The chances of Trump becoming American president or Marine Le Pen French president are judged a tad smaller.”
2016年，我是那些认为人们不会投票给唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的傻瓜之一。正如我在共和党初选前向读者解释的那样，“选民通常只想要一个看起来理智的领导人，这就是为什么共和党几乎肯定不会提名特朗普。”我听从了所谓专家的建议。“如果你想知道未来，”我在那年5月写道，“最好的预测者是博彩市场……Oddschecker网站比较了不同博彩公司提供的赔率，显示英国人选择退欧的机会略高于四分之一。特朗普成为美国总统或马琳•勒庞(Marine Le Pen)成为法国总统的机会被认为稍微小一些。”