In January 2008, during the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, I was summoned to a conference room to meet Ray Dalio, founder of the mighty Bridgewater hedge fund.
His team handed me a vast report, the size of a bible. This, I was solemnly told, represented Dalio’s views on the credit cycle.
I duly skimmed it — and then dumped it into a bin, since it was so heavy. That turned out to be a big mistake. When the great financial crisis exploded later that year, Dalio was hailed as one of its prophets, in large part because of the forecasts in that report I discarded.
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