Russia was expected to defeat Ukraine within a matter of weeks. Almost four years on from the full-scale invasion, Ukraine continues to stand its ground.
Despite Russian claims, territorial gains have been limited. Russia controls roughly 19 per cent of Ukraine, including territories occupied in 2014. In 2025, Russia has taken roughly 3,000 sq km, but most gains are scattered, operationally insignificant and achieved at a high human cost.
That, of course, is far from the narrative of inexorable advance that Moscow has been pushing amid a flurry of diplomatic activity in recent weeks. But it does help explain why Ukraine has been resisting US pressure to agree to a peace plan loaded in Russia’s favour.
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