It’s funny how perceptions change. In September, Oracle raised its estimate of next year’s capital expenditure — chiefly building artificial intelligence data centres — by $10bn, and its stock rose more than one-third in a day. On Wednesday, Larry Ellison’s company boosted that forecast again by $15bn, and the next morning its stock slumped 13 per cent.
It’s a little like a sundial: the gnomon stays still, but the sun moves around it. In this case, Ellison’s strategy remains essentially the same. Oracle was on course for about $280bn of capital expenditure over the next five years, according to BNP Paribas. Clients including OpenAI, Nvidia and Facebook owner Meta Platforms have collectively committed to $523bn of revenue.
But there is a growing lag between cash out and cash in. Wednesday’s bump to 2026’s planned spending wasn’t accompanied by a corresponding increase in revenue. The $80bn-plus fall in Oracle’s market capitalisation shows investors aren’t thrilled about this delayed gratification. Worse, Oracle’s trophy client, OpenAI, has lost ground to rival Google.