The FT’s forecasters did get one big thing right last year: Donald Trump’s return as US president has made the world even more unpredictable. Usually we are wrong on a couple of the 20 predictions (OK, sometimes four or five). Last year, we got seven wrong, our worst tally ever. There was no Ukraine-Russia peace deal — though talks have gone to the wire; US interest rates did fall; Elon Musk and Trump did fall out (though have since made up somewhat); Britain’s Labour government did produce another big tax-raising Budget. We were lightheartedly over-optimistic on bitcoin’s prospects of topping $200,000, and too pessimistic on electric vehicles reaching a quarter of all global auto sales.
英国《金融时报》的预测者去年确实有一件大事判断正确：唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)重返美国总统之位让世界变得更加不可预测。通常，我们的20项预测中会有两三项出错（好吧，有时是四五项）。去年，我们错了七项，创下最差纪录。俄乌没有达成和平协议——尽管谈判已经进入最后关头；美国利率确实下调；埃隆•马斯克(Elon Musk)与特朗普确实闹翻（尽管后来在某种程度上和好了）；英国工党政府确实又推出了一份大幅增税的预算案。我们对比特币价格突破20万美元的前景过于乐观，而对电动车达到manbetx app苹果 汽车总销量四分之一的前景过于悲观。