US economist Jason Furman caused a bit of a kerfuffle in 2025 when he estimated that investment in information processing equipment & software “was responsible for 92 per cent of GDP growth in the first half of this year”.
Nonsense, reckoned TS Lombard’s Dario Perkins. Or at least, sort of nonsense. Regardless of the disagreement, both agreed that the US economy was at risk should AI boom turn to AI bust, and MainFT’s Unhedged covered the whole shebang in real time. Yesterday, the BIS weighed in.
In a new note, Iñaki Aldasoro, Sebastian Doerr and Daniel Rees take a look at the extent of the boom, how it has been financed and whether booms always mean busts.
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