For decades the fossil fuel-rich Gulf states have marketed themselves to investors, businesses and tourists as islands of stability in the otherwise volatile Middle East. But after the US and Israel launched their war against Iran over the weekend, Tehran has lashed out by firing waves of missiles and drones at the region, which is home to several American military bases. It is the nightmare scenario Gulf leaders have long feared.
Ever since the 1979 Islamic revolution, the Gulf has considered Iran a malign force. In recent years, they have sought to manage the relationship by de-escalating with Tehran and bolstering diplomatic relations. As US President Donald Trump stepped up his threats against the Islamic republic, regional officials publicly stated that they would not allow their territory to be used to attack their neighbour. The message was clear: they wanted to stay out of a conflict they had urged the US to avoid. But once Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ignited the war, and assassinated supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran has dramatically raised the stakes by targeting the US’s Arab allies.
Tehran has struck military sites, US embassies, economic infrastructure and civilian buildings. At least a handful of people have been killed and hundreds injured. Airports were closed and airlines grounded. A defining image of Tehran’s reckless retaliation was that of projectiles streaking across the skyscraper-laden night sky of Dubai in the United Arab Emirates, the region’s pre-eminent trade and tourism hub. Expats that came for the sun and low taxes were suddenly exposed to a version of the Middle East they did not bargain for.