Oil from the Gulf takes up to 45 days to reach its destination. That means that the last of the tankers that set sail before the US launched its war on Iran 45 days ago are now coming in, with very little in their wake. With predicted scarcity turning into real shortages, it is time for governments, companies and individuals to think through what “running out of oil” might actually look like.
At present, the risk of going without is largely a factor of where in the world you are. Countries that were particularly dependent on the Gulf for oil and refined products — mostly in Asia — are the first to suffer. That group includes South Korea, India, Malaysia and Singapore. Stockpiles can cushion the blow to some degree. But average stocks only cover about a month of demand, according to Goldman Sachs analysis of data from several Asian countries excluding China.
Much of Asia has therefore begun dabbling in demand containment: remote working for public servants, limiting air conditioning and encouraging public transport. Australia is notable for suffering potential knock-on effects. It imports most of its refined products from Asian hubs. With China and South Korea restricting exports, it too faces the threat of scarcity and panic-buying at petrol pumps.