“If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.” So said Herb Stein, former chair of the US Council of Economic Advisers, back in 1986, about American debt.
Investors might note Stein’s adage again, this time around asset valuations. For a peculiar — and possibly unsustainable — paradox currently haunts markets. No, this is not (just) the hitherto muted reaction of oil prices to the Iran war; nor the eye-popping scale of looming initial public offerings from SpaceX and Anthropic.
The real conundrum is bond and equity yields. For decades, business school students have been taught that equity yields are supposed to be higher than those for bonds, to compensate investors for risks with corporate earnings and market cycles.
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