The writer is head of asset allocation research at Goldman Sachs
Investors have been well rewarded for taking risk and for exposure to innovation. Since 2023, the AI-driven rally in global technology stocks has boosted equities. Bonds lagged behind due to inflation and fiscal risks, including last year’s US tariff shock and, more recently, the Middle East war.
Such divergence has left many portfolios less balanced. The pattern is familiar — long periods of strong asset performance can meaningfully reshape portfolios and equities have outperformed bonds by a wide margin in recent years. The same was true during the 1920s, 1950s and the dotcom bubble in the late 1990s, when innovation drove optimism around rising productivity and profits. The latter period was relatively shortlived but today’s equity and tech leadership has been strengthening since the financial crisis and has gained momentum over the past three years with the AI boom.