Price is not always a reliable guide to value. The financial rewards that come from developing new antibiotics are pitiful, but their importance can hardly be overstated. The rise of antimicrobial resistance could claim up to 10m lives a year by 2050, resulting in a cumulative loss of up to $100tn of economic output, one study concludes. New business models to prevent this — including Netflix-style subscriptions — are being explored to overcome market failure.
Developers of new antibiotics have to contend with both low prices and low volumes. Innovative treatments are deployed slowly to reduce the risk of resistance developing. That makes it hard to recoup development costs. Those are typically around $1.5bn, about 33 times average annual sales.
