Just as markets reached lunatic levels of exuberance on the way up, there is no reason to expect sanity on the way back down. The baying mob is now convinced that standalone investment banks are history. Equity markets, it seems, will accept nothing less. Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch are already gone. Now, incredibly, two of the bluest-chip names on Wall Street, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, are fighting for survival. Shares in the former have more than halved this week alone, forcing it into talks with Wachovia about a merger and with China Investment Corp about increasing its 9.9 per cent stake.
所有的金融机构都在承受打击，但是这两家可谓最高品质的投行，是否将不可避免的消失？忘记那些关于经纪商业务模式可行性的歇斯底里的主张吧。只要市场能恢复少许平静，摩根士丹利和高盛就应该能够生存下去。然而，上周所认为的资金和资本状况绝对充足，可能在一小时之内发生改变。这本身就可成为致命的自我实现过程。