短线观点

SHORT VIEW: CREDIT
短线观点:债券盈利空间


有三个因素能够影响债券收益率和价格的变动:信贷价值、供求压力等技术因素及利率预期。前两点目前都处于有利形势,关键在于央行表现。

Picture a bond investor who started his career in the 1960s. Last year, after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, nearly every extra cent he had built up by taking credit risks was wiped out. Now, a year later, most of those “excess returns” – the amount of money made relative to sticking money in government bonds – have actually been gained back.

想象一个从上世纪60年代开始其职业生涯的债券投资者。去年雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)破产之后,他通过承担债券风险积攒的所有额外财富几乎损失殆尽。一年之后的今天,这些“超额回报”——相对于将资金投入政府债券而多挣的那些钱——实际上大多数又都赚回来了。

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