Picture a bond investor who started his career in the 1960s. Last year, after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, nearly every extra cent he had built up by taking credit risks was wiped out. Now, a year later, most of those “excess returns” – the amount of money made relative to sticking money in government bonds – have actually been gained back.
In light of such a rollercoaster ride, October's credit market performance seems quite pedestrian. Excess returns for investment grade bonds were 0.6 per cent – more than US stocks and still better than historical trends, according to Morgan Stanley.
Is there scope for more gains? For a fixed-rate bond to reflect a higher return, or yield, the price has to fall. Three factors can push yields and prices around: credit worthiness, technical factors like supply and demand pressures and interest rate expectations.