On New Year's Eve 2007, the Financial Times, in its customary look at the year ahead, declared that “the US will skate along the brink of recession in early 2008, but should avoid tipping over the brink”. In retrospect, we can ruefully enjoy that forecast not because it proved to be wrong – although it was – but because it was wrong even as it was published. The recession actually began in December 2007, just as the FT was announcing that it wouldn't begin at all. To modify the old quip, “prediction is very difficult, even when it's not about the future”.
2007年新年前夜，英国《金融时报》在其例行年度展望中表示，“2008年初，美国将濒临衰退边缘，但应该不会坠下悬崖”。现在回过头看，我们可能对这种预测感到遗憾，不是因为事实证明它是错误的——尽管它的确是错误的——而是因为它在发表之际就是错误的。衰退实际上开始于2007年12月，而当时英国《金融时报》宣称危机根本不会发生。对老话改造一番就是：“预测是非常困难的，即便不是预测未来。”