Occasionally, a conversation changes the way you think. More than 20 years ago, a Lloyd’s underwriter told me: “The threat to this market is not a Japanese earthquake. We know that will happen. The threat comes from the risks we never imagined.” That was my introduction to the idea that Nassim Taleb would successfully popularise as the “black swan”. The distinction between “known unknowns”, the things we know we don’t know, and “unknown unknowns”, the things we don’t know we don’t know, has been part of my thinking ever since.
有时候，一次谈话会改变你的思维方式。20多年前，劳合社(Lloyd’s)一名保险商告诉我：“这个市场面临的威胁不是日本地震。我们知道日本会发生地震。我们面临的威胁来自我们从未想象到的风险。”那是我第一次开始接触纳西姆•塔勒布(Nassim Taleb)可能将成功推广的想法——“黑天鹅理论”。从那以后，我一直在思考“已知的未知”——我们知道自己所不了解的东西，与“未知的未知”——我们不知道的自己所不了解的东西之间的区别。
您已阅读13%（743字），剩余87%（4810字）包含更多重要信息，订阅以继续探索完整内容，并享受更多专属服务。