In the coming weeks, Washington will discover whether Edward DeMarco, acting regulator of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, is susceptible to political pressure. Most Americans have not heard of Mr DeMarco. But millions of homeowners will be affected by what he decides. One way or another, that will also apply to his nominal boss, President Barack Obama.
More than four years after the bubble burst, the moribund US housing market has shown signs of life. Much like the welcome but still modest falls in US unemployment, it would be premature to celebrate the housing market’s recent stirrings. Just as the US labour market is conditioned by the millions who have dropped out of it, so house prices are anchored by the 11m or so Americans whose homes remain “underwater” (ie houses that are worth less than their mortgages).
Until this huge backlog of potential foreclosures is cleared, which could take four more years at the current rate, America is unlikely to see a robust housing recovery. This means the economy would be unlikely to exceed its trend growth rate (nowadays estimated at 2 per cent to 2.5 per cent). That in turn means joblessness would be unlikely to fall much further. Without a full US housing recovery, the overall one is unlikely to hit escape velocity. So say economists across the spectrum.