What happens if a large, high-income economy, burdened with high levels of debt and an overvalued, fixed exchange rate, attempts to lower the debt and regain competitiveness? This question is of current relevance, since this is the challenge confronting Italy and Spain. Yet, as a chapter in the International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook demonstrates, a relevant historical experience exists: that of the UK between the two world wars. This proves that the interaction between attempts at “internal devaluations” and the dynamics of debt are potentially lethal. Moreover, the plight of Italy and Spain is, in many ways, worse than the UK’s was. The latter, after all, could go off the gold standard; exit from the eurozone is far harder. Again, the UK had a central bank able and willing to reduce interest rates. The European Central Bank may not be able and willing to do the same for Italy and Spain.
如果有这样一个高收入大型manbetx20客户端下载 体，它的债务水平很高，实行固定汇率制且本币币值被高估，而它企图缩减债务规模并恢复竞争力，那会产生怎样的后果？这一问题具有显著的现实意义，因为这正是意大利和西班牙当前面临的挑战。不过，国际货币基金组织(IMF)最新一期《世界manbetx20客户端下载 展望》(World Economic Outlook)的一个章节显示，历史上存在与此相关的案例：英国在两次世界大战之间那段时期遭遇过类似局面。该案例证明，“内部贬值”努力与债务变化态势之间的相互作用可能是致命的。而且，意大利与西班牙目前所处的困境在很多方面都甚于英国当年。毕竟，英国当年可以选择退出金本位；退出欧元区的难度则要大得多。此外，当时英国的央行有能力也有意愿下调利率；而欧洲央行(ECB)现在可能既无能力又无意愿为意大利和西班牙采取同样的措施。