Since the beginning of May, monetary policy has undergone a substantial tightening. This has taken the form of a rise in the yield on the bonds of highly rated governments. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries rose by 88 basis points between May 2 and the end of last week, to 2.51 per cent. This is a clear tightening of monetary conditions: a rise in these yields lead to rising borrowing costs for the private sector. It is, however, not clear that it is deliberate: longer-term bond yields are not an explicit target for monetary policy. Moreover, part of the reason for the jump in rates is rising confidence. But talk of “tapering” US quantitative easing is also a factor. It is hard to manage a policy whose effects depend on expectations. But it must be done better: this tightening is premature.
自今年5月初以来，货币政策经历了大幅度收紧，这体现为高评级政府债券的收益率上升。从5月2日到上周末，美国10年期国债收益率上涨88个基点，至2.51%。这是货币收紧的明确迹象：这些国债收益率上涨，将导致私人部门借款成本上升。然而，目前尚不清楚的是，它是否符合当局的本意：毕竟，较长期债券的收益率并非明文规定的货币政策目标。此外，收益率飙升的部分原因是信心日益增强。但美联储有关“逐渐缩减”量化宽松的言论也是一个因素。管理一项效果取决于预期的政策很困难，但当局本能做得更好：这一收紧偏早了点。