Is the three-and-a-half decade long bull market in the highest-rated government debt over? If so, would that be a good thing or a bad one? The answer to the first question is that it seems quite likely that the yield of 0.08 per cent (8 basis points) recorded on the 10-year Bund in April was a low point. The answer to the second question is that it would be a good thing: it would suggest confidence that the threats of deflation and eurozone disintegration are fading. At the same time, this bounce does not mean that a rapid rise in yields to what used to be normal levels is on the way. We should want to see yields rise, but modestly. This is also what we should expect.
评级最高的政府债券持续35年之久的牛市结束了吗？如果结束了，那是好事还是坏事？第一个问题的答案是，德国10年期国债在今年4月触及的0.08%收益率（8个基点）很有可能是最低点。第二个问题的答案是，这是件好事：它将表明人们相信通缩和欧元区解体的威胁正在消退。与此同时，这种飙升并不意味着，收益率将会迅速上升至以往的正常水平。我们应该希望看到收益率上升，但要是温和的上升。这也是我们可以期待的。