Suppose that the Leave campaign, which one might call Project Lie, wins the referendum next week. How bad might the economic consequences over the next few years be? Alas, they might be very bad indeed.
Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, noted when launching the May Inflation Report: “The [Monetary Policy Committee] judges that the most significant risks to its forecast concern the referendum.” Moreover, he added, “a vote to leave the EU could have material economic effects — on the exchange rate, on demand and on the economy’s supply potential — that could affect the appropriate setting of monetary policy”. The latest Inflation Report adds that the campaign has already partly caused sterling’s depreciation.
The UK Treasury has provided a thorough analysis of short-term risks. This is, inevitably, controversial. But it is important to remember that the Treasury is notoriously sceptical about the EU. Its main scenario is that gross domestic product would be 3.6 per cent lower after two years than if the UK voted to stay, unemployment 520,000 higher and the pound 12 per cent lower. Under a worse scenario, GDP would be 6 per cent lower, unemployment 820,000 higher and sterling 15 per cent lower. The Institute for Fiscal Studies has added that — instead of an improvement of £8bn a year in the fiscal position if the net contribution to the EU fell — the budget deficit might be between £20bn and £40bn higher in 2019-20 than otherwise.