China learns techniques from the west but adapts them for the local culture. So it is with electric vehicles. Over the weekend, an industry vice-minister has said a European-style timeline to stop “sales of traditional fuel cars” will also be implemented in China. He predicted “turbulent times” as a result. He is right — there will be a scramble for scale.
The country’s pollution problems mean it has every incentive to push electric propulsion. It also sees electrification as an opportunity for its domestic auto industry to catch up with established western carmakers. It is already the largest EV market in the world with 1.2 per cent of car sales last year, according to UBS.
China’s problem with EV economics is the same as everyone else’s. Bernstein estimates that a mid-size combustion vehicle costs $15k to produce compared with $24k for a comparable EV. The differential is down to the battery, which accounts for half of an EV’s cost. A combustion engine is just 15 per cent of a traditional car.