For almost an entire year, Europe has repeatedly faced the same choice: go along with another outrageous demand from US President Donald Trump, or deploy what power it has to impose costs on Washington’s transgressions. Again and again, European leaders have chosen the former in the belief that ingratiating themselves with Trump will avoid the possibility of worse harm coming from opposing him.
But in doing so, they have allowed considerable actual harm to accumulate: accepting vastly unbalanced tariff changes and the abandonment of the most-favoured-nation principle; interference in European elections and pressure to (de)regulate in favour of US tech; sanctions on political figures and international court officials; and taking on the full financial burden of containing Russia’s imperial military ambitions.
The more Europe pays for its supplication, the less convincing its strategic rationale becomes. What evidence is there that hitting back would cost more? The most frequently mentioned fear is that if Europe stops kissing the ring, the US will stop supporting Ukraine. That raises the question of how much support the US has left to withdraw. Washington gives Ukraine hardly any money or weapons. As a result, as Nathalie Tocci of the Italian Institute for International Affairs points out, it “has lost significant leverage over Ukraine” and “does not have the cards to impose a capitulation”.