It took America 12 years from the first Gulf war in 1991 to the second to get rid of Saddam Hussein. The dictator’s capture was followed by years more of Iraqi insurgency. Starting with the financial markets, there is a lot of complacency on how soon the third Gulf war is likely to end. Donald Trump’s Operation Epic Fury on Iran has turned into an epic search for a way out. There is no obvious off-ramp, however, that does not lead back to the highway.
Iran’s latest offer illustrates why. Under the plan, Trump would lift the blockade, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz and they would tackle the nuclear issue later on. Though Trump rejected Iran’s proposal, it is unclear at this point that he can get anything much better. It was offered shortly after the US president had for the second time had to cancel his negotiators’ trip to Islamabad. Much has been said about how unqualified Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are to conduct complex nuclear talks. It may be a while before we find out the extent of their inexpertise.
The war’s most salient feature is that Iran has a strong incentive to keep it going. No matter how many times Trump offers a new golden age for the Middle East, Iran will find it hard to believe he will not flip back to regime change if things do not go his way. He has been veering from promising heaven to vowing hell on an almost daily basis. That Iran’s regime is brutal and fanatical is no excuse. Even the gentlest of negotiating counterparts would find it hard to take him at his word.