The Middle East has witnessed exceptional violence in the 21st century: the “war on terror”, the 2003 invasion of Iraq, civil wars in Libya, Syria, Yemen and Sudan, the emergence of Isis in Iraq and Syria. The Hamas attack on Israel on October 7 2023 and Israel’s wars in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iran set off seismic shocks across the entire region.
By 2026, the last thing the Middle East needed was another war. Yet on February 28, the US and Israel triggered a region-wide crisis when they launched a surprise attack on Iran codenamed “Operation Epic Fury”. Within hours, eight states in the Middle East and Gulf aligned with the US were drawn into the conflict with Iran, and Lebanon drawn into full-scale hostilities with Israel. However this ends, the Middle East will never be the same.
Given conflicting American aims and justifications for the war, it is difficult to predict just how it will reshape the region. The Iranian government is sure to undergo significant change at home, with its regional influence much reduced. Israel is asserting a new dominance over the broader Middle East, which might well alienate Arab Gulf states that hitherto showed openness to engaging with it. Old allies in the Arab world will have their trust in the US shaken the more they suffer the consequences of a war they neither wanted nor consented to.