The acute phase of the crisis is clearly over – for now. There are some signs of a normalisation in the inter-banking market. Sovereign spreads have come down. Italy and Spain will both manage to fund their fiscal deficits until next year. The European Central Bank’s longer-term refinancing operations have propped up the banks. The new Outright Monetary Transactions programme, if it is ever activated, will prop up the sovereigns. If you thought of the lethal interaction between banks and sovereign as two drunks in a pub propping each other up, the ECB has given them separate crutches. They can walk. Does this mean that the crisis is over?
此次危机的急性发作阶段显然已经过去——就目前而言是如此。一些迹象表明，银行间市场已趋于正常。主权债务息差已缩窄。从现在到明年，意大利和西班牙都会成功为财政赤字融资。欧洲央行(ECB)的较长期再融资操作已经起到扶持银行的作用。新的直接货币交易(Outright Monetary Transactions, OMT)计划若得到启用，将扶持相关主权国家政府。如果你把银行与主权国家之间的致命联系想成两个在酒吧里相互搀扶的醉汉，那么现在欧洲央行给了他们一人一根拐杖。他们能走了。但这是否意味着这场危机已结束？