The principal high-income economies – the US, the eurozone, Japan and the UK – have been suffering from “chronic demand deficiency syndrome”. More precisely, their private sectors have failed to spend enough to bring output close to its potential without the inducements of ultra-aggressive monetary policies, large fiscal deficits, or both. Demand deficiency syndrome has afflicted Japan since the early 1990s and the other economies since 2008 at the latest. What is to be done about it? To answer, you have to understand the ailment.
Crises are cardiac arrests of the financial system. They have potentially devastating effects on the economy. The role of the economic doctor is to keep the patient alive: preventing the financial system from collapse and sustaining demand. The time to worry about a patient’s lifestyle is not during a heart attack. The need is to keep them alive.
Like heart attacks, financial crises have long-lasting effects. One reason is the damage to the financial sector itself. Another is a loss of confidence in the future. Yet another is that it makes the debt accumulated in the run-up to the crisis no longer bearable. What happens then is a “balance-sheet recession” – a period when the indebted focus on paying down debt. Post-crisis policy has to offset or facilitate such private-sector deleveraging. Supportive monetary and fiscal policies can help do both. Without such policies enormous slumps are likely, as happened in crisis-hit eurozonee-member countries.