Global electric vehicle sales are at an inflection point where exponential growth beckons, similar to the adoption of solar panels a few years ago. And it is an emerging market, China, that is leading the way.
According to estimates compiled by Medley Global Advisors, a macro research service owned by the FT, there will be more than 2m EVs on the road by the end of this year, up 60 per cent on 2015. On the current trajectory that will increase tenfold to 20m globally by 2020 and, according to the International Energy Agency, could reach 150m by 2040, if the most ambitious targets for containing global warming are met (see chart).
China is by far the largest market for EVs, with more than 300,000 expected to be sold this year — an annual growth rate of 120 per cent — and an official target of 5m EVs on the road by 2020. And while Tesla hogs the headlines, at least in the west, China already has 25 companies building 51 models of electric cars.