I was on a whistle-stop tour of five Dutch cities last week when I found myself thinking: this is peak humanity. No people anywhere have ever lived better. Most town centres were gorgeous, having avoided any destruction for centuries. Cyclists puttered past café terraces. The only hassle was torn-up streets, as perfectly good infrastructure was being renovated. The knee-jerk retort would be that I was watching out-of-touch elitists party while ordinary people sink. In fact, the historically egalitarian Netherlands has become still more equal in income distribution since the 1990s. Nor is the typical Dutch person uniquely blessed. Even in the extremely unequal US, median household income is a respectable $59,039.
Viewed historically, and contrary to popular belief, most westerners today live pretty well. We’ve had 72 years of peace and prosperity (also known as “elite failure”). However, as this month’s events suggest, our lucky run probably won’t last. I’m not going around with a sandwich board saying, “The end of the world is nigh”, but now’s a good moment to short human futures.
Just looking at the threats we know of, the number of natural disasters has risen more than fourfold since 1970, says The Economist. The recent floods and hurricanes, from India to Houston, are the new normal. Climate change will worsen but, anyway, is only one of several burgeoning natural crises. The Stockholm Resilience Centre says we have also already crossed “core boundaries” on the biosphere: human-induced changes to ecosystems are now the fastest ever. That matters even to non-tree-huggers, because when one species goes extinct, others that depend on it follow. Ecosystems decay, some kinds of nutrition get scarce and humanity risks losing its “safe operating space”. But boring science doesn’t make news.